Probability. Price. Discipline.
The LineLens Method
Start with the market. Add an independent assessment. Compare the resulting probability with the price available to you.
Our planned framework combines a 60% market component with a 40% independent model component. This describes the model design; it is not a claim that every sport's model has completed fitting or validation.
60% · Market intelligence
The sportsbook's line and odds anchor the assessment for the exact moneyline, spread, run line or total being evaluated. The market component is intended to account for sportsbook margin rather than treating the raw implied probability as a fair estimate.
40% · Independent modeling
Sport-specific variables feed an independent estimate. Planned Monte Carlo simulations explore possible game outcomes and translate those outcomes into probabilities for the same market and line.
What informs the model?
Relevant input categories may include team and player performance, opponent strength, confirmed starters and lineups, injuries and availability, rest and travel, venue and weather. The variables differ by sport and must be available before the published assessment.
Detailed variable weights and proprietary calculations stay internal. Coverage and data availability determine which inputs can be used responsibly.
How will it be checked?
Planned evaluation uses historical games held apart from model fitting, with information limited to what was known at the time. Calibration checks compare forecast probabilities with observed outcomes. Market-only comparisons help establish whether the independent component adds useful information.
Software tests, a fitted model and demonstrated predictive performance are different milestones. Published evidence will distinguish them; this page reports the intended process, not completed validation results.
Price discipline and the record
Expected value depends on both the probability estimate and the available odds. A changed line, price or lineup can change the assessment. REVIEW means analysis or required confirmation is incomplete. WAIT means completed analysis needs an acceptable price. PASS means publication requirements are not met. QUALIFIED identifies an official published position after all requirements are met, tied to its selection, line, acceptable price and timestamp. Some days have no qualifying opportunities.
The planned results ledger will retain the exact market, recorded price, publication time, result and corrections. Closing-line value (CLV) compares the recorded price with the closing market for the same selection and line; the source, closing time and comparison method will be disclosed. Missing comparisons are marked unavailable. Line movement is reported separately when the exact-line comparison cannot be made. CLV is a diagnostic, not a profit guarantee.